Short Term Solar Forecasting

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IMC is leading a consortium including The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), University of South Australia and The University of New South Wales to combine and extend the forecasting technologies and cloud prediction models developed by the research institutions. 

 

The five operational solar farms that are included in the trial are geographically diverse, spread from far north Queensland to Victoria. These sites represent meteorologically diverse locations that experience widely varied weather conditions and cloud types.

 

The forecasting technology will integrate five state-of-the-art short-term solar forecasting models into a single optimised ensemble model. The purpose of the ensemble model is to capitalise on the strengths of each of the established forecasting technologies, to produce an industry best practice forecast. Technologies range from skyward facing cameras utilising machine vision algorithms to track and predict cloud motion, satellite imaging based cloud motion vector modelling, statistical auto-regression models, numerical weather predictions and detailed power conversion models.